When the Astros High A and Low A player development agreements for 2013-14 are announced sometime next week, my guess is that they will be affiliated with High Desert(California) and Quad Cities(Midwest).
What we know?
Lexington and Houston have had no discussions about renewing their affiliation. Yesterday was the deadline for Major League teams to submit their intention to renew agreements with their current affiliate. The combination of these facts seems to portend the end of the Astros' time in Lexington.
According to this report, the Cardinals are not likely to renew with Quad Cities(in Davenport, Iowa) who have been their affiliate since 2005.
In his previous role with the Cardinals, Luhnow undoubtedly interacted on a regular basis with the staff of the Quad Cities baseball team. One may even theorize from the timeline that he had a hand in negotiating at least two of the Cardinals' affiliation agreements with the River Bandits franchise. Luhnow hasn't hesitated to bring people to Houston who he worked with in St. Louis. I think that tendency will be in play here.
The Astros appear to be stuck in the California League. If the club is looking to get out of Lancaster, their options are limited. Two Florida State League teams and three other California League teams are unattached to my knowledge. The FSL openings are very likely to still be renewed from what I have read.
High Desert, one of the available California League affiliates, is owned by the same two men who own the Quad Cities franchise. Main Street Baseball owns both of these teams. Dave Heller and Bob Herrfeldt bought the Quad Cities franchise in 2007, and they would have worked with Luhnow from then until he left St. Louis to join the Astros. They purchased the High Desert franchise in 2010.
Putting all these pieces together, I think that when new affiliations start being announced next week, residents of the Farmstros Village will be well-advised to link to two new websites just in case: River Bandits; Mavericks.
One factor that did not enter into my reasoning is the Astros' history in Quad Cities. From 1993-1998, Houston prospects like Billy Wagner, Richard Hidalgo, Julio Lugo, Freddy Garcia, Brad Lidge and Johan Santana all played at the stadium in Davenport, Iowa now known as Modern Woodmen Park.