by Jared Webb @webberoo11
We did it, we survived the Mayans. I personally felt a great sense of pride when
I beat the end of the world. Now that
Astros Fans have overcome this great obstacle (Well done, everyone), we have to
figure out how the Astros are going to deal with this whole AL West problem. I'm going to be honest with you guys: I don't
think it will be a pretty season for the Astros. So now that I've babbled a little bit, let me
lay out some of my expectations.
1. Astros go 53-109
I know fans will probably feel a little betrayed by this
prediction, but I'm not confident the Astros will win more, with less, in the
AL West in 2013 than they did in the NL Central in 2012.
The AL West seems to get stronger daily, even the Mariners are doing
what it takes to bolster their roster. I
like a few of the additions Houston made, but realistically I don't see the improving much over last year.
There is a chance that Carlos Pena could hit like he did in 2011, but he
will also strike out like he did in 2011.
Jose Veras strikes out a lot of batters, but he also walks a ton. John Ely and Alex White won't magically
transform into superstars in the AL West.
Sad to say it, but I expect the Astros to clinch their third straight #1
pick in 2014.
2. Bud Norris doesn't
make it to Spring Training
Before the Rangers acquired Ryan Dempster, they were in
talks with Houston for Bud
Norris. Rumors have been popping about
the 27 year-old righty ever since.
Recently trade talks have died down, and Jeff Lunhow has said that the
roster is pretty set. I take that to
mean no more FA signings, but I expect Lunhow to deal Norris before the season
starts. Right now the value for starting
pitching is heavily inflated due to draft compensation and the lack of
available pitching on the market. I also
think the our good friend Jeff will want to deal Norris away before his value,
possibly, takes a major hit when he faces AL West lineups.
3. Sean Manaea is the
first name called in the 2013 draft.
This is a very early prediction, and things could majorly
shift in a different direction.
Last
year the Astros shocked us all by taking Carlos Correa over Mark Appel with the first over-all pick and they could surprise again by selecting Manea. Manaea is a 6'5 LHP from Indiana
State who absolutely dominated the Cape
Cod league with his mid 90's FB.
He doesn't have the polish of Appel or Ryne Stanek(Arkansas), but this organization is
desperately lacking in the LHP department. If no one establishes themselves as the consensus 1-1, and Manaea is
still in the top five, I expect him to be the Astros' guy.
4. Jordan Lyles/Alex
White take progressive steps forward.
I think there are a lot Astros fans that are already
considering Jordan Lyles a bust. Let's
pump the breaks a little before making that declaration. Lyles was off and on throughout the entire
2012 season, sometimes showing flashes of brilliance and other times frustrating us
all. Two factors to consider with Lyles are
that he is still younger than most top prospect pitchers (22 yrs old), and that
the Astros have rushed him pretty badly.
Jordan
showed that he was still developing when he went from 89-91 mph to 91-94 while
hitting 95 quite often. Alex White is
somewhat in the same boat. He was taken
in the 1st round in 2009 and moved very quickly through the Indians' system. Alex made his debut in 2011 and put up decent
numbers before being dealt to the Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez
deal. He proceeded to get smashed all
over the slaughtering grounds of Coors Field.
I think that the talent is still there and that getting away from Colorado
could help. Keep in mind also that prior to starting the 2012 season White was
charged with a DUI, and this could have created off the field distractions for
him. I also think the Lunhow is bringing in coaches who will teach ground ball
pitchers, like White, to be more effective. I
think both Lyles and White could turn into middle of the rotation arms.
5. Cosart and
Singleton don't start the year in the MLB
I know fans are screaming for Cosart and Singleton to get
the call up to the show. I highly doubt
this will happen at the beginning of the 2013 season. I think the Astros
front office will do everything possible to make sure to delay starting their
arbitration clocks in 2013. I know
that's not what fans want to hear, but I have to agree with it. Barring an season like Oakland had in 2012, the Astros won't be close
to competing for a playoff spot. So why
rush two of our best prospects when we don't have a massive depth of upper
level prospects near to the show? I
expect both guys to come to spring training and compete, and ultimately start
the season in AAA.
I realize that I'm not preaching the Astros glory in this
article, but we are still years away from returning to the old days of
winning. The FO seems willing to let the
big league team take a bashing, stack #1 picks and continue to build as much
young talent in the system as possible. It won't be
popular with the fans, but the hardcore followers will understand.
I'm sure the Astros fearless leaders are
banking on the masses returning to Minute Maid Park when the wins start stacking up. Until then, I recommend that everyone learn to love
prospects, or start reading more books because
its going to be a long season.
c2013 by Jared Webb
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